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China Conflict

Thursday, May 22, 2014 4:15

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Q. Hello. What are your thoughts on China’s claiming of areas in south China sea? Is this a part of a bigger plan? I may be wrong but why does the UN seem to not want to mediate? In the end, who will the involved islands (Spratlys & Paracel) belong to? When do you see this conflict end? Thank you

A. I see China positioning themselves to become the next super power. I see these islands as a wealth of resources and I also hear the term “shipping depot.” I see that China really is trying to become independent and not need the rest of the world as much, and actually wants to make the rest of the world need them. This not only gives them strength, but protection as well because if the world needs China, they (the world) is more willing to give them leniency in the event they do things that would not otherwise be accepted.

I see in theory the Spratly Islands should go half to Malaysia and half to the Philippines. I also get that China does have a valid claim to some of Paracel (when I view the map in my mind.) The other portion of of Paracel belongs to Vietnam. China won’t be satisfied with that as I see them really accumulating as much wealth and resources as possible. I get the image of China being like a hoarder, not really knowing what they need but taking it all in to sort our later. China has long term goals of power in mind, and they are working at it slow and steady (and to some extent under the radar when you consider their ultimate goal).

I also get the UN isn’t mediating this yet. They are hoping this resolves itself (in a sense). The UN is also looking at China seriously because when the next currency is issued, they know China wants to facilitate it, and they need a good stable country with a large gold reserve to do it. In a sense I see the UN sitting back and watching how China handles things as if China is on a job interview.

This conflict looks to be drawn out for a long time, and I don’t see resolution for 3 or 4 years. Everyone involved wants to hold onto their piece.

Q. Thank you very much for you great work and devotion. I would like to ask you question regarding the Vietnam-China conflict at the moment on the South China sea. Do you see that the fact that China refuses to take back the oil rig planted on the part of the sea that belongs to Vietnam will lead to a war between the two countries? In the end, will Vietnamese government and people give up their whole South China sea and the Spratley & Paracel Islands to the Chinese government, since Vietnamese military is weaker, compared to this of China? Would this create anger and violence among the Vietnamese people in Vietnam if it happened?

A. I see China standing their ground. China wants and needs these natural resources. The Chinese military is strong, and I see them using that strength to intimidate. I don’t see the Vietnamese government giving this up easily and it looks to be a stalemate for a long time. I see both sides wanting something, and neither is willing to budge.

I don’t see war, but I do see conflict. Ultimately the Vietnamese will surrender these islands, and to say the Vietnamese people are angry is an understatement. I see some kind of agreement being done (Vietnam get a percentage of resources from the islands) to soothe this transaction, but there are many hard feelings over this.

Source: http://psychicfocus.blogspot.com/2014/05/china-conflict.html

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