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Paul Krugman: The Obamacare Shock

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What does the new evidence on Obamacare tell us?:


The Obamacare Shock, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times
: Obamacare
goes fully into effect at the beginning of next year, and predictions of
disaster are being heard far and wide. There will be an administrative
“train wreck,” we’re told; consumers will face a terrible shock.
Republicans, one hears, are already counting on the law’s troubles to give
them a big electoral advantage.

No doubt there will be problems, as there are with any large new government
initiative, and … we have the added complication that many Republican
governors and legislators are doing all they can to sabotage reform. Yet
important new evidence — especially from California… — suggests that the
real Obamacare shock will be one of unexpected success. …

In … California…, insurers have submitted the prices at which they are
willing to offer coverage on the state’s newly created Obamacare exchange.
And the prices … are surprisingly low…, it looks as if Obamacare’s first
year in California is going to be an overwhelmingly positive experience.

What can still go wrong? Well, Obamacare is a complicated program, basically
because simpler options, like Medicare for all, weren’t considered
politically feasible. So there will probably be … administrative confusion
as the law goes into effect, again especially in states where Republicans
have been doing their best to sabotage the process.

Also, some people are too poor to afford coverage even with the subsidies.
These Americans were supposed to be covered by a federally financed
expansion of Medicaid, but in states where Republicans have blocked Medicaid
expansion, such unfortunates will be left out in the cold.

Still, here’s what it seems is about to happen: millions of Americans will
suddenly gain health coverage, and millions more will feel much more secure
knowing that such coverage is available if they lose their jobs or suffer
other misfortunes. Only a relative handful of people will be hurt at all.
And as contrasts emerge between the experience of states like California
that are making the most of the new policy and that of states like Texas
whose politicians are doing their best to undermine it, the sheer
meanspiritedness of the Obamacare opponents will become ever more obvious.

So yes, it does look as if there’s an Obamacare shock coming: the shock of
learning that a public program designed to help a lot of people can, strange
to say, end up helping a lot of people — especially when government
officials actually try to make it work.


Source: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/05/paul-krugman-the-obamacare-shock.html



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