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Brexit – Is free movement a red line for the Out voters.

Monday, October 24, 2016 4:24
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Last bit about Brexit for a while, promise.
However, an interesting, well managed, debate on LBC this morning. The Liberal Democrat, Remain voting presenter put the usual idea that people didn’t understand that they were voting to actually quit the single market.
It went on to suggest that if Scotland and Northern Island were proposing to exit the UK, via a referendum, would the voters reconsider a second referendum to remain in the single market, with free movement, but possibly opting out of other areas of EU control instead.

This has been doing the rounds for a few weeks now. The idea that the UK fears a break-up enough to accept free movement. And the recent economic shocks have woken people up to the dangers of a go it alone exit.

Personally, I think not.

I doubt the Scots will call another referendum on Scottish independence. The $ oil price alone means that the economic arguments that they couldn’t win last time will be harder this time. Plus the unlikelihood  of automatic EU membership being offered. {Spain will veto} makes an argument that was lost once, harder to win the second time. Not impossible. Brexit proves that. But hard to win.
It was 45% – 55% in a more favourable time. The way Sturgeon is only hinting she might do something, rather than saying she will definitely, demonstrates the SNP recognises that it may get more from bluff, than from call.

Northern Ireland won’t vote to leave. The main fears, deliberately stoked up by project fear; the threat of a Berlin Wall style border and the threat of no trade with Ireland and repatriation of EU nationals, have all been shown to have been false. So N.I. is unlikely to vote in the same numbers that it did when its genuinely felt self-intrests were threatened.

And, the killer blow for such a Liberal scheme, is that the free movement was a central issue. Not a side issue but the first or second reason why people voted to leave in the first place.
An attempt to keep free movement, by the back door, would not be acceptable.

But, let’s find out. Do you believe that if TM can do a deal with the EU, to remain in the single market, but to have free movement, with some restrictions on benefits claimed and possibly having to have a job arranged before coming, some kind of eurofudge that we all well used to seeing.
Would that be enough for YOU to vote in favour of REMAIN, in a second referendum ?


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