– this post authored by Stefan Avdjiev, Robert McCauley and Hyun Song Shin
Working with the wrong accounting classifications can lead to wrong conclusions in any area of economics. But it is especially treacherous in international finance, due to the importance of key currencies and the operations of multinational firms, especially global banks. Much of the analysis in international finance is still conducted under the assumption that the GDP area, decision-making unit and the currency area coincide – the so-called ‘triple coincidence’. This column illustrates the common analytical missteps that can arise by reviewing three examples from the recent past, and argues that a proper analysis of capital flows necessitates paying greater attention to basic accounting building blocks.