from the San Francisco Fed
– this post authored by John Fernald
Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1-1/2 and 1-3/4%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, reducing its contribution to productivity growth through labor quality. The GDP growth forecast assumes that, apart from these effects, the modest productivity growth is relatively “normal” – in line with its pace for most of the period since 1973.