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Coastal Local Zoning in Progressive States Caused the Trump Win: Post #2

Sunday, November 27, 2016 8:44
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(Before It's News)

This post represents a sequel to this recent popular post.    In that post, I argue that an unintended consequence of stringent local zoning in the progressive states of California, Oregon and Washington is that these states created a near vertical housing supply curve and priced out middle class people who moved to Texas instead.  This dispersal of the population cost Hilary Clinton dozens of electoral votes.  Now some data.  Go to this IRS state to state migration gross flows data. Download the 2014-2015 data and you will learn the following facts.

For U.S residents who move to California; their most likely origin in order from first to last is;  Texas, New York, Arizona, Washington, Florida and Nevada

For California residents who leave the state (perhaps due to high housing prices), their most likely destination in order from first to last is;  Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Washington

For U.S residents who move to the state of Washington, their origins in order are;  California, Oregon, Texas, Arizona, and Idaho.

For Washington residents who leave the state (perhaps due to high housing prices), their most likely destinations in order are; California, Oregon, Texas, Arizona, and Idaho.

For U.S residents who move to Oregon, their origins in order are;  California, Washington, Arizona, Texas, Idaho and Colorado.

For Washington residents who leave the state (perhaps due to high housing prices), their most likely destinations in order are; California, Oregon, Texas, Arizona, and Idaho.

If these state to state migration flows play out every year, what this might add up to?

While speculative, I would guess that Texas (which appears many times above) would have 24 electoral votes rather than 38.  Arizona would have 6 electoral votes rather than 11 and Idaho would have 2 electoral votes rather than 4.

If this Red State to Blue State migration swings 21 electoral votes to the progressive states of CA, WA and OR then Mr. Trump has 269 electoral votes.

I view this to be a lower bound because I have ignored Florida and Ohio and Rust Belt migration to these progressive states.

To read my  two papers that are the basis for my core claim, click here  or here. 

To summarize this post, my critics must answer the counter-factual of; what would be the population of Texas if it were easy to build in progressive coastal states?  My answer is a 40% reduction in the state's population.



Source: http://greeneconomics.blogspot.com/2016/11/coastal-local-zoning-in-progressive.html

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