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Donald Trump’s very tight margin of victory

Wednesday, November 9, 2016 17:17
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Hillary Clinton - 228 

Donald J. Trump - 279 
 270 to win.
A pretty impressive margin at first glance. Democrats are wiped away.  And a very similar rerun to Brexit. 
Wrong polls: Hillary was 5% ahead in polls and still  95% certain to win on betting markets at midnight.  
PaddyPower had foolishly paid out on her victory weeks before the election.
Misinterpreted data. Exit polls showed ‘the economy’ and not ‘immigration’ was the most given reason for voting which is seen as good news for Hilary Clinton. 
Why would that be good for Hillary? It was obvious that the question asked was being answered as ‘jobs’ and not ‘the wider economy’. You only had to watch two minutes of those being interviewed. 
Group think assumptions.  Latino’s, black Americans and women are all voting Democrat.  
Why would Republican women, suddenly start voting for Clinton? The level of female support for Republicans is around 36-37%. That didn’t move. And why would it?
Received Wisdom - The Democrat’s ground game and Clinton’s superior election experience will ensure more turnout for her than for Trump.
 Which ignored the near empty Clinton rallies and the Farage/Corbyn level of mob attendance at Trump ones. Why wouldn’t those people be enthused to vote. As at Brexit. And for much the same reasons.
 When will they learn. eh? Probably going to need a le Pen presidency before it really sinks in.

228 – 279 is very impressive . Trump has the Whitehouse. Both Houses of Congress and the Supreme Court on his side. If he wants to build, he can build a wall.

The surprise and scale of Trump’s unexpected victory has meant that people have overlooked one quite important point. he very, very nearly lost.

FloridaAn absolubte, no question, must win Trump state, was won by the Republican with 4,605,515 votes to 4,485,745.  out of  some 9 million votes the winning margin was 119,770.
The seats that took him to victory, and made sure the Democrats could no longer win were Wisconsin and Michigan. And the ultimate surprise, Pennsylvania. A ‘swing state’ that has not swung since Bill was greeting interns at the White House
 Pennsylvania . Trump – 2,912,941. Clinton – 2,844,705. – a decent 68,000 majority. however The 3rd candidate had 112,000 votes.
 Wisconsin.  Democrat voting since Ronald Reagan left office. 1,409,467  Republican. 
1,382,310 Democrat.

27,157 victory margin. The 1% !

Michigan.  Democrat since Bush the elder fell from office to usher in the other Clinton, has had 5-15% democrat margins of victory since 1992.
2,279,210 – Trump. 2,267,373 Clinton. 
4.5 million votes. Margin – 11,800 votes. A Gordon Brown zero % win level of victory.
 Those 3 states, just a few thousand homeless voters down the polling station, and that would be a Clinton presidency under their hybrid, first past the post system.

So a Remoaner style argument of  a tiny majority for Trump from people who didn’t know what they were voting for could conceivably be made quite convincingly. Especially if the assumption that third party candidate votes should have gone to Clinton is made, however speculatively.
That would explain the damaging, unexpected, and in the words of Margaret Beckett today ‘Horrifying and terrifying specter of Donald Trump in the Whitehouse.’.
And would conveniently ignore the facts that the Democrats had a very unpopular candidate who took months and months longer than expected to lock down her own nomination. 
Had 30 years of political baggage, stored in a closet with more skeletons than Vincent Price and more scandal than a Profumo romp. 
Who couldn’t get out the vote, even among Hispanics and women who had been subject to constant Trump abuse and or threats of deportation. Even going as far as promising to build a wall to keep them out once he’d booted them from America.  
Who never managed to explain why she deleted 30,000 yoga class reminders on her private email server or where her millions of dollars mixed  in private-government-charitable companies came from.  
Who offered nothing more than a status quo, third term Obama, with a bit more war. Who refused to even debate concerns on immigration or the direction of the economy. 
Who exuded a sense of elitist entitlement. Of self virtue and self righteous preaching and ivy league disdain for any opposing illiberal views.
Who seemed to believe should be President of America because she was a woman.. and had waited a heck of a long time.. and it was her damn turn!
 Someone so unpopular that a rich TV host could come from nowhere. Say anything he liked, no matter how discourteous or outrageous. Stand for office without even the support of his own political party. Alienate half of America and have western democracies debating in parliament whether he should be banned from ever entering their countries, and STILL beat her..
That might have had something to do with it.


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