The second week of November 2016 was everything a bored market watcher could hope for, and more! Unexpected news: check! Massive swings in intraday daily stock price volatility: check! Blown prediction about Week 2 of November 2016: check!
Or was it? You be the judge….
Halfway through our hand-drawn forecasting experiment, the actual trajectory of the S&P 500 is running to the low side of our forecast range, which we think will continue in the absence of a noise event (there's an election in the U.S. sometime next week, right?) or a more fundamental change in the expectations for the future with respect to the S&P 500's dividends.
Well, we certainly got a noise event! Here's how things stand on our alternative futures chart, where four weeks ago, we projected that the closing value of the S&P 500 on each trading day would track along in the red-shaded area indicated on the chart, at least in the absence of a significant noise event or a more fundamental shift if the future expectations of investors.
We've got one week to go before our red-shaded forecast expires. Who knows what other noise we might see before the next week is over?
Speaking of which, here are some of the headlines that captured the “fun” of Week 2 of November 2016.
As always, Barry Ritholtz divided the week's economic and market news into its positives and negatives.