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Could President Trump Cause India to Boom?

Tuesday, January 10, 2017 13:23
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President-Elect Trump is a “natural experiment”.  Back in the mid-1990s, the top 5 academic journals were filled with such applied micro papers.  Suppose President Trump ends the H1B Visa program.   There is a large group of talented people who would remain in their home nation because they couldn’t work in the USA.  Indian engineers would be a large subset of these affected individuals.   If 100,000 Indian engineers a year remain in India, won’t this boost the short term stock of human capital in India? If Lucas 1988 is the right model of economic growth, then won’t cities with increased numbers of these engineers boom?


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