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The S&P 500 in Week 2 of February 2017

Monday, February 13, 2017 2:02
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(Before It's News)

The big story for the S&P 500 in Week 2 of February 2017 is the same story that has now been percolating for weeks: the U.S. stock market's prolonged streak of unusually low levels of volatility, where the market hasn't fallen by at least 1% of its previous day's closing value for 82 trading days. How unusual is that? Statistician Salil Mehta has provided some historical context :

Since its founding in 1950, the S&P 500 has clocked nearly 17 thousand trading days, of which there have been only 22 other “no 1% drop” streaks, which also endured at least 81 trading days. The previous one was pre-financial crisis in 2006, and that lasted 94 days.

One percent is a significant number where the day-to-day movement of stock prices, because that's approximately the magnitude of the standard deviation for the day-to-day volatility of stock prices over all that time.

That's for the day-to-day changes in the market's closing values. Over the last 40 days, the entire intraday range of trading for the S&P 500 has fallen within one percent of its previous day's closing value.

And yet, even with so little day-to-day movement, the daily closing value of the S&P 500 has somehow continued to manage to fall within the range we forecast back in the first week of 2017.

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Meanwhile, here are the main headlines that caught our attention during the second week of February 2017 for their market moving potential, or lack thereof.

Monday, 6 February 2017
Tuesday, 7 February 2017
Wednesday, 8 February 2017
Thursday, 9 February 2017
  • Fed's Bullard says rates can remain low through 2017
  • Fed buys $8.5 billion of mortgage bonds, sells none
  • Wall Street rises to records as Trump ignites tax-cut hopes
  • Friday, 10 February 2017

    At The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz summarizes the positives and negatives for the U.S. economy and markets for the trading week ending on Friday, 10 February 2017.



    Source: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-s-500-in-week-2-of-february-2017.html

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