Read the Beforeitsnews.com story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By John Rolls (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Now:
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:
Total:

Fed Sweeps Yield Curve Under the Rug - What Are They Trying to Hide?

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.


This article was originally published at Birch Gold Group  /  Alt-Market

A few weeks ago we reported the Fed was getting hawkish despite what they were calling “low inflation.”

In that article, we showed rates possibly being raised more than 4 times in 2019. But more importantly, we warned that anyone investing in the market should start preparing to expect the unexpected.

And right now, it looks like the Fed’s bizarre moves are continuing.

This time it involves the yield curve. The yield curve represents the difference in interest rate paid on short-term Treasury notes and long-term Treasury notes in the bond market.

A common signal of economic health from the bond market involves looking at the difference between the 2-year and 10-year rates (also called the “spread”).

Over the last three decades, when 2-year yields are lower than the 10-year bond yields, it signaled a healthy economic outlook.

But when that “spread” shrinks, the yield curve is said to be flattening. If it “reverses” entirely, the yield curve is inverted (or negative).

Since 1980, an inverted yield curve preceded an economic recession with reliable accuracy (see graph below, red arrows point to 3 recent events):

So the yield curve is a fairly reliable signal for imminent recession. And notice the downward trend of the yield curve on the right side of the graph. That indicates a flattening yield curve heading towards inversion.

And when we zoom in, the picture looks even more dire.

As of July 11th, 2018 the Treasury reported the difference between the 2-year and 10-year bonds to be 27 basis points (or .27% – see chart below).

This is the lowest spread since the 2008 Great Recession, and already much lower than the historical graph above.

There is no doubt the yield curve is flattening, and at an alarming pace.

Taking the historical data into account, if this trend continues and it does invert, that would be a signal of an imminent recession.

And one more Fed rate hike could invert it, according to Investing.com.

But strangely, it looks like the Fed wants to sweep the yield curve signal under the rug.

Fed: “When the Yield Curve Creates Doubt, Throw it Out”

So as the curve flattens, and gets ready to signal a recession, at a recent FOMC presentation the Fed examined the prospect of replacing it.

Wolf Richter commented on this presentation, and explained what the “new” indicator examined:

This new indicator – rather than looking at the spread between longer-term yields of two years and 10 years – is looking at the spread between short-term yields. It’s “based on the spread between the current level of the federal funds rate and the expected federal funds rate several quarters ahead derived from futures market prices.”

There was no indication in this meeting that the FOMC members had any doubts about the reliability of the original yield curve signal.

But unusually, the “staff” did hint that the change-of-indicator may be made because they don’t like what the flattening yield curve points to.

From the June 12-13 FOMC meeting minutes:

The staff noted that this measure may be less affected by many of the factors that have contributed to the flattening of the yield curve, such as depressed term premiums at longer horizons.

So the Fed doesn’t favor an indicator that points out the distortions it is creating. Then it replaces that indicator with another one that doesn’t do that?

Seems awful fishy, like one of those shell games where you try to guess which shell the ball is under (but the ball isn’t there).

Don’t Let the Fed’s “Shell Game” Damage Your Retirement

Gold is historically consistent during uncertain market conditions like these. In fact, central banks have remained buyers and demand all over the world is heating up.

So hedge your bets against the Fed “shell game” while there’s still time.

http://alt-market.com/articles/3472-fed-sweeps-yield-curve-under-the-rug-what-are-they-trying-to-hide



Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!


Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST


Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!

HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.

Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.

MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)

Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser!  Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!

Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.

Smart Meter Cover -  Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).

Report abuse

    Comments

    Your Comments
    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    MOST RECENT
    Load more ...

    SignUp

    Login

    Newsletter

    Email this story
    Email this story

    If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

    If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.