The danger of overshoot: humanity’s population dilemma

By Frosty Wooldridge

Well folks, Monday, October 31, 2011 will come and go, but the 7^th billion human being to be born into the human mob on that day will continue to grow by 240,000 daily until we reach 10 billion at mid century. 

None of this situation portends a positive ending.  Every single environmental dilemma in the world finds its source as human overpopulation.  Dr. William Catton addressed it in his book: Overshoot.  It means that humanity overshoots the carrying capacity of the land.  Aldolfo Doring filmed it in his video “Blindspot”.

Must see DVD: “Blind Spot” www.snagfilms.com/films/title/blind_spot/ , This movie illustrates America’s future without oil, water and other resources to keep this civilization functioning. It’s a brilliant educational movie! www.blindspotdoc.com

The green revolution was instigated as a result of the efforts of Norman Borlaug, who, while accepting the Nobel peace prize in 1970, said: “The green revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only.”

Check out this link with Wooldridge on bicycle and Lester Brown and panel discussion:

www.upnorthmedia.org/watchupnorthtv.asp?SDBFid=1631

My friend Tim Murray speaks about what we face and how Dr. Paul Ehrlich addresses the population predicament:

“We could support a lot more people on the planet if humans were willing to share equally, but they don’t: we want to design a world where everybody can lead a decent life without everybody being fair.” Dr. Paul Ehrlich

“In that statement Dr. Ehrlich reveals that his initial value to the conversation,” said Murray. “The vital insight that he possessed and imparted a half century ago—– has failed to keep pace with the more fundamental understanding that some, like Dr. Jack Alpert and Chris Clugston have tried to share. The understanding that to the contrary, there is not enough to go around. Not in the long run.   Indeed, if all the resources that the planet had to offer were equally shared, we could—temporarily—-enjoy an average Brazilian lifestyle.  But even if our numbers remained static at 7 billion people—-or even 10% of that number—–our per capita share of accessibly affordable non-renewable resources would continue to diminish to the point that it would no longer suffice to sustain us, and conflict would break out. 

“We would be like passengers on a global lifeboat who could survive another 10 days if our food and water rations were shared equally, rather than hoarded by the few in command. The problem, however, is that landfall is 20, not 10 days away, and that an approaching storm might very well capsize our overloaded boat as we fought for what was left.

“Egalitarianism—while a valid moral objective in itself—-is not a remedy for overshoot, any more than green “lifestyle” changes that would have us reduce our per capita intake of rations. Eventually “equal” portions would not be enough to sustain us, and the zero-sum game would become a negative sum game, as  Chris Clugston would say. That is, in order to survive, you would have to appropriate someone else’s share, and even at that, that appropriation would not restore your former level of consumption.

“The population movement should not be a monarchy, but a meritocracy. We should not allow our gratitude for the contributions made by revered icons prevent us from examining newer perspectives that are less comforting because they paint our predicament in such urgent colors so as to demand politically incorrect solutions.

“Shall we then soften the prognosis and give him aspirins? My instinct is to show him the ex-ray and tell him to get a second opinion. In my lab, the conclusions are evidenced-based, not faith-based. If you don’t like evidence, then go to a priest or a rabbi for the salvation you are looking for.

Biography

Frosty Wooldridge is a retired math/science teacher and an active environmentalist, lecturer and cyclist who pedaled across six continents.  His broad perspectives and passion for the natural world led him to develop a lecture series on the harmful impacts of unchecked population growth, “The Coming Population Crisis in America: and what you can do about it” He is the author of: America on the Brink: The Next Added 100 Million Americans.  His website is www.frostywoolridge.com