According to the Times someone in the Treasury thinks the UK could be a lot worse off outside the single or internal market. They have put some more figures into the Times that make some bits of Project Fear look quite modest. What is the point of putting out silly figures that bear no relationship to the current reality of the UK economy? Why suggest the UK will be in a weak position when we leave the single market, when it is more than likely the rest of the EU who has much more to lose than us wants to keep good access to the UK and therefore has to continue with our good access to them. We now know the Treasury figures for the short term impact were wrong, so why trust their longer term numbers? With or without a special deal with the EU the UK will have good access to the EU’s internal market, on terms as least as good as every other non EU country around the world does.
As people shouted out in one of the public meetings I spoke to during the campaign when the Remain side used their Project Fear figures “We don’t believe you”. These numbers are bad economics and even worse politics. The UK needs to show a united and confident face for the discussions over trade with the rest of the EU.