In May 2016 the Governor of the Bank of England warned of the dangers of a vote to leave the EU. He was quoted by both the BBC and Bloomberg as saying “that the risks of leaving “could possibly include a technical recession”. I have not seen any suggestion that was a false quote.
Today Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent tells us “the central projection in the August Inflation Report didn’t involve a recession, simply a slowing in the economy’s rate of growth. But that slowing looks so far to have been more m0derate than we feared.” Mr Broadbent is careful to define a single central forecast made at a later date.
It all seems to mean that the Bank got their various statements and forecasts wrong, and now are changing their tune about the outcomes for the UK economy this year. It is good news the Bank now agrees with those of us who have consistently said there will be no UK recession in 2016. The Bank has revised its Q3 2016 forecast up.