Profile image
By purple scorpion
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

Economists v Michael Fish

Friday, January 6, 2017 5:39
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

Economists are admitting that their forecasts about the economic effect of a Brexit vote were wrong. They are comparing this to Michael Fish’s famous mistake about a hurricane.

That’s vivid but wrong. Michael Fish forecast that an exceptional event was not going to happen. Economists forecast that it would.

Some of their forecasts were obvious nonsense at the time. We heard that a Brexit vote would damage the world economy. Not just the UK economy, but the world economy. What serious analyst could imagine that for a moment? Even George Osborne, who lied, lied and lied again, didn’t push that button.

The economists’ predictions weren’t evenly spread around the actual outcome. We didn’t see a spread of forecasts, some lower, some higher.

Seemingly as one, they forecast dire economic results from a mere Brexit vote. This is bad news for governments and for the rest of us. If government can’t rely on the economics trade (surely it no longer qualifies as a profession) to get forecasts roughly right, they are flying blind. Mrs Thatcher took that in her stride. But it’s doubtless adding to the dithery panic in No. 10 now.

In any case, the economists’ Brexit big guns were firing at the wrong target. It wasn’t an economic vote at all. Brexit was about sovereignty and democracy.


We encourage you to Share our Reports, Analyses, Breaking News and Videos. Simply Click your Favorite Social Media Button and Share.

Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Top Global


Top Alternative




Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.