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The Trouble with Confidence

Tuesday, February 14, 2017 11:41
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Daniel Kahneman on the prevalence and the problem of overconfidence. The issue is obvious when celebrities support social and political narratives from a position of profound ignorance yet do so with the most ineffable confidence. Somehow they know they are not idiots in spite of all the evidence. That’s confidence.
How about HS2, the next big government IT project, the next housing policy initiative, defence spending, green energy or the latest education policy? 
Yet in many cases confidence is not necessarily misplaced because those responsible will be long gone by the time the brown stuff hits the fan. If it ever does. 


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