Yesterday into the close I put up a chart that suggested we’d drop afterhours to the rising green trendline and then turn back up with the bulls trying again to get over 2156 and make a new (slightly higher) trading range. This morning the futures are currently dancing on the green rising trendline, which looks pretty weak at the moment.
So while I suggested it would be hit and the futures would turn back up I’m changing that 2nd part to “might” turn back up. The reason I don’t feel as strongly about a turn back up is because the MACD’s are still pointing down on this 60 minute chart (trying to turn back up), as well as the 2, 4, and 6 hour charts. This tells me that any move back up won’t be supported by higher time frames and therefore the likely-hood of that move failing is high.
Meaning that I think we’ll see the futures drift lower to rising “blue” trendline or even retest the 2145 horizontal support level. It’s all about how much time it takes to drift lower. If we hit the 2145 area or the blue trendline within the first hour of the day then it’s possible that we’ll drift even lower and retest those multiple lows around 2135 or so. But if this drift down takes 2-3 hours, where we’ll be into the lunch time period, the odds of the 2145 area hold is much better. Basically, more time is needed to reset the MACD’s on various time frame charts so the futures can turn back up.
That scenario is based on the green rising trendline failing to hold and therefore dropping to the blue trendline or the 2145 prior support zone. Now, if the green rising trendline holds early this morning and we see a turn back up on the MACD’s then I’d guess we’ll ride the green trendline up for half the day or even the entire day. That would make a nice bear flag for a drop on Wednesday, as we’ll as some wave 2 up or B wave… which again leaves a wave 3 down or C wave down yet to come.
I don’t get the feeling they will ride that green trendline all day and close on it but if they do I think it will setup a nice short into tomorrow. My thoughts are that any “riding” of the green trendline this morning will be met with it breaking down later in the second half of today, therefore leading to a drop to at least the rising blue trendline, if not the 2145 horizontal support. All in all today looks like we’ll get either a nice bearish setup for Wednesday into the close, or a drop later today.