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Is the US Stock Market Topping 2?

Thursday, October 27, 2016 17:26
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stocks-topping_2

Is the US Stock Market Topping 2?

I don’t normally post on Fridays, but the ABM was just released, and I figured that some readers may want an update.

In “A Warning: US Stocks Topped?”, I wrote that the St Louis Fed Asset Monetary Base could give us an advanced warning of a US stock market decline. I said we needed to see two ‘consecutive declines in the AMB’.

I have placed ‘consecutive’ in parentheses because I discount small one-period rises – like the one in Figure 2. If at the next reading, I see another strong move down, I’ll treat the two declines as ‘consecutive’ despite the intervening small rally.

Let’s see if the next release throws light on the picture.

2016-10-28_07-56-31-amb

FIGURE 1 St Louis Fed AMB 2016-10-26

The post Is the US Stock Market Topping 2? appeared first on Ray Barros' Blog for Trading Success.

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