Visitors Now:
Total Visits:
Total Stories:
Profile image
By ETF Daily News (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Now:
Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:
Total:

Oil Forecast for 2017: More Volatility, Rangebound Trading

Thursday, October 13, 2016 9:57
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

(Before It's News)

Oil drumTechnical analyst Taki Tsaklanos explores a bevy of possibilities for oil prices over the next year, and concludes “black gold” may just stay rangebound.

Exactly two years ago, crude oil started its historic collapse of almost 75%, a decline that was never seen before in history.

Now that crude has stabilized, what is our crude oil price forecast for 2017?

Before looking into that question, it is always interesting to go back in time and look at former price forecasts from the experts. Let’s first revisit what the pros predicted in 2014:

We really got a mixed picture back then, so it was hard for investors to choose a direction based on these articles.

Now that is exactly the reason why we rely on charts. On any chart, supply and demand come together. Though fundamental analysis may be useful to get an understanding on dynamics within a market, charts are helpful in forecasting future price directions with a high degree of probability.

A Crude Oil Price Forecast For 2017

Examining crude oil’s chart is not easy, certainly not when trying to forecast its price. In general, the crude oil price is very volatile, and, hence, complex. In order to get an idea of future price direction, we have to identify chart patterns.

The patterns that are visible on crude’s chart are, in general, forming three areas:

  1. AREA 1: A trend channel in which crude oil prices were trading most of the time between 1985 and 2004. After 2004, crude prices only penetrated once in that area, i.e. end of last year / early this year.
  2. AREA 2: The chart clearly shows that area 2 has a transitionary character, as prices only get into that area for a short period of time once they rally or collapse. Prices have certainly never stabilized in that area.
  3. AREA 3: Between 2005 and 2014, prices have been most of the time in area 3, i.e. above the upper secular support line on the chart.

Our expectation is that crude oil prices in 2017 will not move up to area 1 and will not collapse into area 3. By exclusion, we predict that crude will trade mostly within area 2 throughout 2017.

The $35 to $40 range will act as strong support. Prices could certainly move higher, but will find secular resistance at $75 where the 2014 gap down started.

So, overall, investors could go long in 2017 once crude oil prices fall towards the $40 level and close positions (or go short) above $60.

crude_oil_price_forecast_2017

This article is brought to you courtesy of Investing Haven.

You are viewing an abbreviated republication of ETF Daily News content. You can find full ETF Daily News articles on (www.etfdailynews.com)

Report abuse

Comments

Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories

Register

Newsletter

Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.