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Oil Plunges To One-Month Lows As OPEC Agreement In Peril

Monday, October 31, 2016 6:57
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(Before It's News)

oil-derrickFrom Tyler Durden: WTI Crude has extended losses this morning below $48.00 – a one month low – as more details emerge from the “just conversations” had in Vienna this weekend that tend to indicate no agreement on even a freeze, yet alone cut, in global crude production.

Brent crude is also back below $49 (for Dec) and $50 (for Jan).

Bloomberg summarizes the latest publicly stated positions of key countries involved in talks that may result in a freeze or reduction in oil supply.

IRAQ:

  • Consistent with its view that secondary-source production est. are inaccurate, Iraq’s state marketing agency on Sunday released detailed production data on 26 fields, plus a single output figure for semi-autonomous Kurdish region
  • The country’s minister has previously stated that Iraq should be exempted from cutting production because it’s fighting Islamic State
  • OPEC officials met Friday in Vienna, then held talks Saturday with non-OPEC nations Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia

BRAZIL (non-OPEC):

  • Saturday’s talks were “just conversations” with no output commitment reached between OPEC and non-OPEC, Brazil’s Oil Secretary Marcio Felix said after those talks ended

AZERBAIJAN (non-OPEC):

  • Outcome of talks depends heavily on Iran and Iraq, which are “more interested in increasing their oil production,” Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev said Saturday morning. After talks ended, he said he was satisfied with progress

OPEC SECRETARIAT

  • OPEC said in press release that Friday-Saturday talks were “constructive” and emphazised need for more frequent consultations in November toward implementation of OPEC’s Sept. 28 Algiers deal that aims to limit OPEC supply to 32.5m-33m b/d

SAUDI ARABIA:

  • Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Oct. 23 that Gulf nations were working with Russia and others to stabilize market; he mentioned possibility of either a freeze or a cut in an Oct. 19 speech in London

IRAN:

  • Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia on Oct. 24 said Iran will “go along with” OPEC goal of balancing market, IRNA reported. Didn’t specify what actions Iran might take
  • Iranian officials have previously said the nation is pumping more than secondary source estimates show, and have argued it should be allowed to produce 4m b/d or more

RUSSIA (non-OPEC):

  • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Oct. 26 that Russia’s prefered position is an output freeze rather than a reduction; still considering all options

OTHER OPEC STATES:

  • Nigeria, Libya already have exemptions from cutting production as part of Algiers deal

Speculation was running rampant over the weekend that the OPEC deal had hit the skids, and today’s price action clearly confirms these worries. If the deal does fall through, WTI could be headed for $40 or perhaps even lower.

The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE:USO) fell $0.16 (-1.45%) to $10.85 in Monday morning trading. Year-to-date, the largest ETF tied to the price of WTI crude oil has fallen 1.27%.

This article is brought to you courtesy of ZeroHedge.

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