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Thank GDP It’s Friday!

Friday, October 28, 2016 7:35
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Can one report pull us out of a slump?

As you can see on the S&P 500 chart, we’ve gone nowhere since early September, which is where we landed after going nowhere all summer and then dropping a quick 2.5% on the Brexit, from which we recovered quickly before grinding back down to the exact same spot – so I guess that was the right reaction after all.

In between we’ve hear all sorts of amazing BS as “analysts” try to explain the up and down gyrations of the market and we’ve heard just as many prediction about where the market was going and, despite the fact that 90% of those people were wrong, most of you are still looking to see where those same idiots think the market is going next.  Why?  Really, why?  I just don’t get it.

Back on September 1st I asked: “Are you the dumb money?“, noting that the “smart money” was getting out of equities at a rapid rate – even as we were making new highs.   That was the day after I warned about: “Window Dressing Wednesday – End of Month Market Prop Job” and, by the way, there’s a great chance to get into that UNG play at the same prices they were back then – still a great trade!  

On August 23rd, I wrote: “Technical Tuesday – 2,200 or Bust!” and the market topped out the next day at 2,193.81 and we are 2.7% below that mark this morning at 2,133.04 – no “bust” yet, just a minor correction.  Oddly enough, we did have a lot of bullish picks in that post and most of them are still playable.  

On Sept 12th, I wrote: “ Monday Market Movement – Hedging for Disaster” and laid out the following hedge with the S&P at 2,160 and the Russell at 1,235:

  • Buy 50 (more) TZA Jan $30 calls for $3.15 ($15,750) 

Provided courtesy of Phil’s Stock World.

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