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Wednesday update

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 13:23
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SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +30

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2134. The SPX had closed at 2143 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2132, and then began to rally. At 10am new home sales were reported lower: 593K v 609k. Then after the Crude inventory report as released the market rallied to SPX 2146 by 11am. As Crude reversed and began to selloff the SPX followed. And by 2pm it had hit SPX 2134. Then the market rallied again, hitting SPX 2141 by 3:30 before dipping to 2139 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then pending home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today stunting another rally off the recent SPX 2115 low. Thus far we have observed quite a choppy mess from that low: 2149-2124-2148-2130-2155-2132-2146. It is now possible this market is creating a fourth wave triangle from the SPX 2194 high: 2119-2180-2115-2155-xxxx. If so, a retest of the 2116 pivot may be next. Just speculating here. But the two month choppiness is begging to look like a triangle. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the mid-2140’s and low-2150’s. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at today’s low, then bounced to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend


Filed under: Updates


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