PANEL 4: RETHINKING THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM
Moderator: George Selgin – Director, Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, Cato Institute
Jerry L. Jordan – Former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Steve Hanke – Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Walker F. Todd – Trustee, American Institute for Economic Research
Selgin introduces the topic arguing how difficult it is to analyze things today
Jordan (get his paper)
Rules vs discretion — what are useful targets or indicators?
Buying/selling Treasuries; Fed funds targeting
Large balance sheets — no need for excess reserves. Large foreign banks buy deposits of FHLBs — positive fed funds rate.
Borrowing from the banking system — IOR, reverse repos.
Monetary base — currency plus reserves. Was close to accurate at the beginning, but not so now. When rates go up, it is a form of fiscal stimulus.
Monetary base has grown
Basel III massive cause for reserves. Foreign banks have been reducing activity in the US.
Hanke Wrong things expected: hyperinflation, GDP growth, net private investment would soar, etc.
Money matters, and it dominates over fiscal policy
Money is a superior measure to interest rates
Divisia measures are superior — opportunity cost of converting a monetary asset into cash.
Center for Financial Stability takes care of Divisia measures.
Three measures: State money, Bank money and Nonbank private money.
State — M1 Currency, M4 T-bills
Nonbank private money — M2 Retail money funds, M3 Overnight & term repos, Institutional money funds, M4 commercial paper
Bank money — M1 Traveler’s Checks, M2 Non-interest bearing deposits. Savings Deposits, MM Dep accts, Small time deposits, M3 Large time deposits
Bank regulation has led to tight money, amid loose monetary policy w/QE.
Notes Kashkari’s recent proposal — would kill private money
Todd — have standard models failed?
Graph of Fed’s balance sheet — Assets, then shows money velocity/multiplier.
Government spending is up. QE not working, yet being adopted elsewhere. Suggests Jerry Jordan’s solution may work.
Swiss National Bank asked why the Fed is paying interest on excess reserves? Who knows?
With no velocity and no money multiplier how does monetary policy affect GDP.
Central bank liquidity swaps are negligible now, though it was high as high as ~$600B. Should be limits on the Fed’s ability to enter into liquidity swaps.
Fed credited $558 Billion to US Treasury for a “security” at some point in the crisis. (??)
Suggests segmenting the Fed’s lending operations. Should be able to review any entity that would receive emergency funds.
Q1 Venezuelan guy — Can we trust the helicopter pilots? How to loosen bank regulations?
Hanke: Regulation important when it changes a lot. Not usually considered at monetary policy, but it is. Private money has shrunk since the crisis. Ultratight regulation plus loose policy — means relatively tight policy. Forget Basel IV and roll back Basel III.
Q2 Student at Southern Methodist University: When have central banks done it right?
Hanke: China has been an outlier by ignoring Basel — may have other effects later.
Jordan: New Zealand often viewed as a successful Central Bank. Maybe Australia, Switzerland…
Q3 Joseph Marshall — How can things work well if we discourage savings?
Jordan: Savings glut = Investment glut (ex post). Lower rates often drive savers to save more to get to a target. Half-plus of US currency is held outside of the US. Investment spending 10-11% of GDP. Bailouts further consumption in bubble areas.
Q4 Gerry O’Driscoll — Todd: Blip in Treasury account balance may be drawdown in reserves. Promise to keep balance sheet constant until an exit is desired.
Jordan: Debt ceiling — large cash balance going into a debt ceiling period could be it.
Expresses gratitude to the speakers and Jim Dorn. Incident of some Russians printing their own currency. Top down central planning does not work, and threatens our liberties.
Now the Russians have a cryptocurrency…