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Despite Recent Rate Spike, Long-Term Trend For Bonds Is Very Bullish

Wednesday, November 23, 2016 7:17
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(Before It's News)

From Jill Mislinski: Let’s take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended Tuesday at 2.31% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.00%.

Here is a table showing the yields highs and lows and the FFR since 2007 as of the November 10 close.

The 2-10 yield spread has jumped to 1.24%.

Yield Closeup

The chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the St. Louis Fed’s FRED repository for the Fed Funds Rate.

Treasury Yields since 2007

A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Note Yield

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 Oil Embargo that triggered the era of “stagflation” (economic stagnation with inflation). The trendline (the red one) connects the interim highs following those stagflationary years. The red line starts with the 1987 closing high on the Friday before the notorious Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 fell 5.16% that Friday and 20.47% on Black Monday.

10-year Yield Log Scale

The dashed lines on the chart above were provided by Bob Bronson of Bronson Capital Markets Research. Bob comments:

“The blue dashed lines are much more closely parallel to the all-data, log-linear best fit line — very similar to the high-low mid-channel line — since 1980. Then there is the even more currently relevant downtrend (black dashed line) since the 2007 high.”

The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed at 3.94%. Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average, which began in April of 1971.

Freddie Mac 30-Year

Now let’s see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Federal Reserve intervention. Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior.

Fed Intervention

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see our Treasury Yields in Perspective, which we update on occasional Fridays.

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) fell $0.71 (-0.59%) to $120.40 per share in Wednesday morning trading. Year-to-date, the largest ETF focused on long-term Treasuries has gained just 0.44%.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Advisor Perspectives.

You are viewing an abbreviated republication of ETF Daily News content. You can find full ETF Daily News articles on (www.etfdailynews.com)

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