BarroMetrics Views: Trump and the Markets
The way some stock markets, and some USD crosses, are behaving, you’d think a Trump win is a near certainty – reminds me of the situation surrounding Brexit – where the markets were saying that ‘Britain Remaining In Europe’ was a foregone conclusion.
Let’s have a look at the facts:
Trump definitely has more to do, while Clinton’s momentum is waning: that’s why I rate the contest too close to call.
However, the way the markets (especially the USDJPY, Clinton is “overs” i.e. she is good value. Think of it this way; my logic says her chances of winning are 50-50, but the USDJPY is rating her chance 30-70. So, my Clinton win bet has a 20% overlay.
If Clinton wins, we’ll see a strong stock and USD rally.
A bet anyone? Well, let’s see what the markets and odds look like on November 7 (EST). I may have a bet.
For those unfamiliar with the Electoral College see: “Electoral College”
I have attached from the WSJ, ‘A Field Guide to Red and Bue America‘.