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Trump Express Keeps Moving

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 3:34
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Trump Express Keeps Moving

Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:05 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Dec. USD is Down at 99.610.
Energies: December Crude is Up at 44.33.
Financials: The Dec 30 year bond is Up 27 ticks and trading at 155.08.
Indices: The December S&P 500 emini ES contract is 30 ticks Higher and trading at 2168.00.
Gold: The December gold contract is trading Up at 1227.90. Gold is 62 ticks Higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down- and crude is Up+ which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading Up. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Up and Crude is trading Up+ which is not correlated. Gold is trading Up which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia traded mixed with half the exchanges Higher and the other half Lower. As of this writing Europe is also trading mixed with half the exchanges Higher and the other half Lower.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

– Core Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
– Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
– Empire State Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.
– Import Prices m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is not major.
– Business Inventories m/m are out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.


We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZB made it’s move at 10:30 AM EST with no economic news to speak of. The ZB hit a low at around that time and the YM hit a high. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 10:30 AM EST and the YM was moving lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a low at around 10:30 AM EST and the YM hit a high. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform

Click on an image to enlarge it.
ZB – December, 2016 – 11/14/16
YM- December, 2016 – 11/14/16


Yesterday bias was to the upside as both Gold and the Bonds were trading much lower yesterday morning and this usually bodes well for an upside day. The Dow gained 21 points but the other indices lost ground. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Well it seems as though the Trump Express keeps moving forward regardless of anything. From a purely trading perspective I’d say we’ll take it and move forward. I know it doesn’t make any sense but on the other hand did this entire presidential cycle make any sense? I think not. We’ve never had a billionaire as our chief executive so this should make things very interesting in DC. Today the markets moved with no economic news to speak of and despite flip flopping between positive and negative territory; the Dow still eked out a gain for the day. One thing is for certain, it won’t be boring…
Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at:…ket-direction/

Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I’m proud of the fact that they did as I’m Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled “How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation” and can be viewed at:
View article on Futures Mag
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I’ve produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at:
View article on Futures Mag
Many subscribers have asked what is the best time of day to trade? A recent article published by Futures Magazine may shed some light on the subject:…orning-trading

As readers are probably aware I don’t trade equities. While we’re on this discussion, let’s define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter’s earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company’s shares. This is one of the reasons I don’t trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don’t have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.

Anytime the market isn’t correlated it’s giving you a clue that something isn’t right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We’ll have to monitor and see.

As I write this the crude markets are Higher and the futures are trading Higher. This is not normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. Yesterday December Crude dropped to a low of $42.20 a barrel. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $41.70 a barrel and resistance at $45.18. This could change. We’ll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. On Friday, December 4th OPEC reiterated their stance not to cut production. OPEC appears to be adamant about keeping production where it is as they believe that oil will rebound. What they haven’t figured out yet is that the more countries like Canada and the US produce their own crude (by whatever means) the more crude prices will fall.
Last May OPEC reiterated it’s stance not to cut production. The problem? Iran refused to cut production (as they are recently recovering from sanctions levied against them) and therefore no agreement was made. Could this change in the future? Of course, anything can happen in a volatile market.
If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets gives us better direction.

Future Challenges

So now that Mr. Trump has won the election and will become the 45th President of the United States, what will he do and how will that affect us? He promises to make America great again but thus far he’s very slight on details. He does however have some good ideas. I like the idea of slapping a 35% tariff on goods formerly manufactured in the United States, that will stop any company from leaving the US. The concern is what will he do with Obamacare? He’s promised to repeal it, but what will replace it? He’s never quite said what he’ll replace it with or is he going to throw 20 million Americans off the ACA and say you’re on your own? I’m certain there are members of the GOP who would advocate such but certainly Congress and the Senate won’t like it as they hear from their constituents on a daily basis. He claims that he wants to improve the lives of the “forgotten” man and woman but he’s never claimed that he would raise the minimum wage. So how is Mr. Trump going to do these miraculous things? He’ll borrow a play from the Apprentice and hire “smart” people and if they screw up he’ll fire them.

Crude Oil Is Trading Higher

Crude oil is trading Higher and the markets are Higher. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today’s market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn’t have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I’m not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.


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