A few months ago, president-elect Donald Trump gave a phone interview with Fox Business in which he said that while he’d sold out of all his own stock positions, that the stock market would perform very well if he were elected.
While he didn’t elaborate at the time about exactly why the markets would surge if he won, he was adamant that stocks would in fact rally. From the interview:
When asked how the markets would perform if he were elected president, Trump predictably said they would “it’s going to go great,” noting that he’s built tremendous wealth and assets himself.
Well, the results speak for themselves. The Dow has gained nearly 5% in the three weeks since election night (despite an initial massive after-hours dump), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes are up 3% and 2.6%, respectively.
Just as nearly every analyst predicted Trump would lose the election, most pundits also assumed the markets would tank if he unexpectedly won. Mark Cuban, for example, said the following:
“In the event Donald wins I have no doubt in my mind the market tanks…. If the polls look like there is a decent chance that Donald could win I’ll put a huge hedge on that’s over 100% of my equity position, and my bond positions as well, that protects me just in case he wins.”
While Cuban’s bond hedge certainly would have paid off, with interest rates spiking to yearly highs after the election, his bearishness on stocks certainly hasn’t.
Cuban clearly wasn’t alone. Most Wall Street analysts expected a major pullback if Trump won. Citigroup warned of a global recession. Goldman Sachs saw short-term negative risks. Deutsche Bank noted a 10% drop in U.S. stocks was possible. And the list goes on.
It seems that nearly the only person who believed stocks would rally if Trump emerged victorious was Trump himself.
The story is far from over, of course. Trump’s inauguration set for January 20th, and it’s really not fair to judge a president’s effects on the financial markets until at least a year or two into their presidency.
So while investors should reserve judgement, it’s safe to say that analysts were wrong and Trump was right — for now.