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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 2,200, Dow 19,000

Wednesday, November 23, 2016 9:45
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All-time highs! 

Last time all our indexes hit all-time highs together was back in good old 1999 and that party was never going to stop either – unitl it did, of course.  The pullback in 2000 wasn’t even that bad, if you don’t count the silly run to 5,000 on the Nasdaq that made no sense, then the pullback from 4,000 to 3,000 was very normal – it was only the crazies that bought stocks up at Nasdaq 5,000 that got really burned….

Of course, that Nasdq wasn’t the same Nasdaq we have today.  There is no more (Amazon delivers our pet food), there is no more WebVan or Kozmo (Amazon delivers our groceries) and, of course, there is no more Books-a-Million (yep, Amazon). 

Image result for amazon p/e history 2016Aside from Amazon, who lead the overpriced team in the new bubble with market cap that is 179 TIMES their projected (forward) earnings, other survivors of the crash of 2000/2001 are AAPL, HPE, IBM, MSFT, GOOGL, INTC, CSCO, ORCL and IM, who are especially notable as they actually compete with Amazon yet they still survive.

So clearly it is better to be a company that actually makes stuff – especially stuff that other apsiring tech companies buy from you.  For AAPL, it’s tech employees who buy there stuff and for GOOGL – they advertise all the stuff people are trying to sell you.  Yet AMZN has a $373Bn market cap – bigger than all the stocks put together back in 2000! 

Amazon was coming back to reality before the election but now it’s off to the races again and, while we’re not worried about our Jan $900 short calls we sold for $8.10 the last time AMZN popped (now $1.98 so we’re up 75%), it is getting interesting again as a short for those brave enough to point and say “Emperor Bezos has no profits!

Well, they do have profits but they are all in their cloud storage division – the rest of the business is actually running at a loss this year.  Anyway, it’s an interesting stock to short.  I favor the April $850 ($90)/780 ($50) bear puts spread at net…

Provided courtesy of Phil’s Stock World.

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