During the last year we have seen the collapse of two major pensions. The Central States Fund affecting about 500,000 pensioners mostly in the flyover (who gives a shit) states and in Texas in Dallas and Fort Worth. These blow ups are useful beta tests for the takedown of a much bigger system of public and private pensions that have no possible way of making good on their promises to their recipients in a zero interest environment. They are now starting to release tremors of a similar problem with the much larger CALPERS pension fund in California. Again, they are beta testing some subsets of these pensions with announcements that certain municipalities within the fund are going to face problems this year and will have to take dramatic cuts like the CSF retirees were given. They are trying to show you “there is a problem BUT we are able to CONtrol it” Its a mantra they are instilling in the populace while the “boil the frog”. Problem is …..the frog IS going to jump out like it did in Dallas when they made a “run on the bank” and again therein lies a problem. Look for this door to get closed this year in these funds.
These revelations are now signalling that time is running out on the hemorrhaging of these Ponzies and therein lies the ultimate arbitrator which is the Law of Nature and its mathematical reality. As they rob Peter to pay Paul out of their Funds, a level of “no return” is crossed. That level will be exceeded this year in a number of major funds that will signal “Houston We Have A Problem”. Only a massive QE announcement can funnel enough money to stave off this collapse of the Pensions this year. This is ANOTHER reason I think they will announce QE this year.
Or of course we can just default and deflate and start over. IF you think they're going to do that, then I'll take the other side of that bet. They are going to “reflate/inflate” and they will not take NO for an answer. I see only “more of the same” which is “extending and pretending”. At least that's my best guess. Which is not necessarily bad for miners. If they keep gold under control with an upward bias to 1400 this year, then you'll see your miner portfolio show similar returns this year to last year's return. Remember Goro in January last year at 1.15 and now up 500%. Oh wait, you're in pain because you bought at 5.50 in the summer and think you got screwed and didn't buy again when it dumped in December. That's okay, maybe you're right in not buying and maybe you'll see it even lower. BUT…. IF you had been in the miner trade when they crushed them to ridiculous lows in 2015 and owned the RICs, the AGs, the SSRIs, the EXKs going into this year then EVEN WITH THE BEATDOWN in late 2016, you would still be up 200 and 300% overall.
Think about it. Because of the media, trolls, and beatdowns this is still THE most hated sector on Wall Street…….at least for now. Welcome to the new year and welcome to the coming shit storm. Oh wait……its all good. gl