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Thursday update

Thursday, January 5, 2017 14:22
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SHORT TERM: pullback/consolidation day, DOW -43

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but ended flat. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported lower: 153K v 216K, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported near 1973 lows: 235K v 265K. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2271 close, bounced up to 2272 just past 10am, then headed lower. At 10am ISM services was reported unchanged at 57.2. The pullback found support at SPX 2260 around 11:30. Then the market started to work its way higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2270, then dipped to close at 2269.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds rallied 25 ticks, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold jumped $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 180K) and the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.

The market opened lower today, bounced to slightly positive, then slid back to SPX 2260. After that it rallied, and closed slightly negative on the day. After reaching quite overbought yesterday today’s pullback dropped short term momentum to nearly oversold. This looks like a normal reset. Thus far we are observing three waves up from last week’s SPX 2234 low: 2264-2245-2273. Today’s pullback might a subdivision of the third wave. Again today, just like Tuesday, selling in the SPX occurred in unison with a quick decline in Crude. Then when Crude stabilized/recovered the SPX recovered too. We are also noticing this week the NDX/NAZ are leading and the DOW is lagging. This is what has occurred for several years, with the exception of the two month rally after the Trump election. Short term support is now at SPX 2260 and 2245, with resistance at the stubborn 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your 2017 trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


Filed under: Updates


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