Once again… very bearish looking this morning. I’m just not seeing much upside from here. Maybe we float up to retest this mornings’ premarket high but odds are low that the bulls will have the strength to push through 2300 today. They need some news related event to spark a squeeze on the bears and I don’t see much on the calendar today to give them that. My guess is that by 10 am to 11 am we’ll rollover again like yesterday and break the new rising trendline in green.
This assumes they can turn it back up a little at the open with the “buy the dippers” crowd. If not, then I guess we’ll be drifting down early and back up small later on today. Overall though today looks bearish and should close red. I said “should” as we all know how manipulated this market is and how hard it is to keep it down with volume so extremely light. Regardless though, the charts say we go down today. Maybe not big but back into that lower trading level of 2285 down to 2275 does seem possible. Just hitting the falling trendline in yellow would be a miracle for the bears, as we know how hard it is to push it down with no volume, but that’s what “should” happen once the rising green trendline breaks.
Now for tomorrow, who knows at this point? But I will add that the weekly chart of the DOW is very overbought and about ready to cross on its’ MACD’s from a high level. Past times that it crossed there was at least one if not 2-3 weeks of a move down in the market. The SPX is not quite ready to cross yet but it’s getting close as well. Meaning, the bulls are running out of time to get this magic 2300 level hit and need to do it very soon or risk a lot of downward pressure from the weekly chart, and that’s not going to be easy to overcome.
Next week is usually a bullish week as it’s the monthly option expiration week, but over the last few years that “old rule” might have been altered with the introduction of all the “weekly options” that are now very popular and generate a good amount of volume. Maybe not as much as the monthly but they are getting there. And that means that the “bullish manipulation” on the monthly options expiration week may not be needed as much today as it was in the “old days” when the market makers ran that week up to make all the put holders lose as their options expired worthless. It’s also effects the “old rule” called the “Thursday/Friday” low the week prior to the monthly options expiration week… which is today and tomorrow. I’ve noticed that it’s nowhere near as accurate as it used too be in the past. These weeklies have changed a lot of “old rules” and made it tougher to figure out. So, I’ll just end by saying that I think the bulls are on borrowed time right now and I doubt if they make it through next week. I suspect we are going to see it down if this week doesn’t start it with tomorrow’s close.