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Fedspeak Doesn’t Move Markets Much

Monday, March 6, 2017 5:25
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(Before It's News)

Fedspeak Doesn’t Move Markets Much

Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Mar. USD is Down at 101.330.
Energies: April Crude is Down at 52.87.
Financials: The June 30 year bond is Up 17 ticks and trading at 149.25. Please note: the front month is now June.
Indices: The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is 44 ticks Lower and trading at 2370.25.
Gold: The April gold contract is trading Up at 1233.90. Gold is 74 ticks Higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down- and crude is Down- which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Down and Crude is trading Down which is not correlated. Gold is trading Up which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

Asia traded mainly Higher with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei and Singapore exchanges which traded Lower. As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today

– Factory Orders m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
– FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 3 PM EST. This is major.

Treasuries
We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
On Friday the ZB made it’s move at around 11:30 AM EST with no economic news to speak of. The ZB hit a high at around that time and the YM hit a low. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 11:30 AM and the YM was moving higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a high at around 11:30 AM EST and the YM hit a low. These charts represent the newest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 10 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform Click on an image to enlarge it.
ZB – March, 2017 – 3/3/17
YM- March, 2017 – 3/3/17
Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a downside bias as both Crude and the bonds were trading higher Friday morning and usually this does not bode well for an upside day. The Dow gained 3 points and the other indices gained fractionally. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary

With all the Fed members speaking this past Friday, we might as well have had the FOMC Meeting. Instead we got 4-5 members speaking their minds. It would appear based upon what they said we’ll get a rate hike come March 15th at the next FOMC Meeting. It would appear that the only thing that could stop a rate hike is a lousy jobs report out this Friday, but we’ll have to see. It seems that the Smart Money is solidly behind this rally as the markets only rose within the last 15 minutes and only rose fractionally. From our perspective we will continue to monitor the markets using our rules of Market Correlation as our guideline.

Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/market-cor…ket-direction/


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I’m proud of the fact that they did as I’m Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled “How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation” and can be viewed at:
View article on Futures Mag
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I’ve produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at: View article on Futures Mag
Many subscribers have asked what is the best time of day to trade? A recent article published by Futures Magazine may shed some light on the subject: http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/01/15…orning-trading


As readers are probably aware I don’t trade equities. While we’re on this discussion, let’s define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter’s earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company’s shares. This is one of the reasons I don’t trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don’t have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn’t correlated it’s giving you a clue that something isn’t right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We’ll have to monitor and see.

As I write this the crude markets are Lower and the futures are trading Lower. This is not normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. On Friday April Crude dropped to a low of $52.72 a barrel. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $52.13 a barrel and resistance at $53.49. This could change. We’ll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. Please note that the front month for crude is now April. Last December and after two years OPEC finally decided to cut production but the price crude is still tame (as of this writing). What they haven’t figured out yet is that the more countries like Canada and the US produce their own crude (by whatever means) the more crude prices will fall. The move by OPEC to cut production in an attempt to pump up prices is liken to “too little, too late” as the world doesn’t need their oil as much as they used to. Power equipment that used to need oil (Grass Trimmers, Lawn Mowers, Autos) now run on battery power and Canada and the United States are producing more of their own crude. As an update to this the non-OPEC countries have come to an agreement to unilaterally cut production across the board and this has served to temporarily raise crude prices. We’ll have to see if and how long this lasts…
If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets gives us better direction.

Future Challenges

Last Tuesday evening we heard President Trump give his first address to a joint session of Congress. Ordinarily this would be a State of the Union Address but I guess because he’s just been inaugurated that’ll be next year. I must admit admit this was an excellent speech. For the first time that I can recall Donald Trump sounded Presidential. He spoke about uplifting the Middle Class, jump starting the economy, improving America’s crumbling infrastructure, jobs, etc. These are all positive goals and objectives. I can attest first hand as to the differences between US airports and those overseas. Anyone who’s ever traveled to Europe knows what I’m referring to; their airports and roads are better. Autobahn or Route 95 in Philly? Hmm, I’ll take the Autobahn any day. However here’s the concern; he’s still sketchy on details. He did not mention one word about the how nor did he mention one word (as he did on his campaign) on no cuts to Medicare or Social Security. He did mention Obamacare (of course) but is still sketchy on the details. He talked about buying insurance across state lines and at first glance this sounds ideal except when you look closer and realized that buying insurance in Wyoming is very different than New York. We have a state insurance commissioner in each state of the union who’s job it is to enforce the rules of that state as it pertains to insurance. Is President Trump talking about creating one set rules for all states or he is intent on destroying NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners)? Once again, he’s sketchy on the details…

TradersLog has just published an article entitled “So You Think You Can Trust Your Elected Officials?” That article can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/trust-elected-officials


Crude Oil Is Trading Lower

Crude oil is trading Lower and the markets are Lower. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today’s market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn’t have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I’m not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it’s monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.

Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com. Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.



Source: http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=25501&goto=newpost

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