Weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2500, and didn’t stray too much from that level all week. On Monday the market opened higher, hit a new high in the opening minutes at SPX 2508. Then after only an 8-point pullback, eked out a SPX 2509 print on Wednesday. After the Wednesday FOMC statement/conference, the market pulled back to SPX 2497 then rallied back to 2509 near the close. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2497 again by Friday’s open, then ended the week at 2502. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the NAHB, housing starts, and existing home sales. On the uptick: building permits, import prices, the Philly FED, leading indicators and weekly jobless claims declined. Next week will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, personal income/spending, and the Chicago PMI.

LONG TERM: uptrend

We continue to monitor the DOW and TRAN for potential headwinds to the bull market scenario. As you can observe from the DOW chart, it shows no signs of weakening as it is still in Minor 5 of Int. wave iii. Like the SPX, it still requires an Int. iii top, an Int. iv correction, then new highs during Int. v to potentially end the bull market.