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when will the Euro weaken against the pound?

Thursday, September 22, 2016 10:33
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Many buyers of Euros are upset at the current level and are keenly waiting for rates to recover back to 1.20 or even higher. This prospect is not completely out of the question but I do feel it is more likely buying Euros will become more expensive not cheaper on a balance of probabilities over the course of the next few months. What we are waiting for if buying Euros is some Euro weakness but for now it is sterling weakness which is driving the GBPEUR exchange rate and taking investors attention.

There are two reasons that could see the Euro weaken at the moment. The first being a resurgence of the Euro debt crisis with Greece and co. Were we to suddenly see Greece hit the headlines again the Euro would certainly weaken but the outlook and likelihood of this happening is fairly limited. Last year the Euro was very weak which caused much volatility across many exchange rates, unfortunately for Euro buyers this is unlikely to quickly reverse. The Eurozone came up with a number of method to manage the risk of the Greek debt crisis which are doing very well so far. The second is that economic conditions in the Eurozone could deteriorate to the point where they might need more QE which would weaken the Euro. This is the more likely scenario to weaken the Euro but the expectation is this is more likely to not happen than to happen.

If you have any questions or currency transfers to consider the likelihood is for more GBP weakness, the challenges for the pound and the UK seem to me to outweigh those facing the Eurozone and the Euro. If you wish to learn or discuss more please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

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