This morning is the day we have been waiting for with the release of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the third quarter. This data represents the 3 month period after the referendum vote for Britain to leave the EU and hence there is monumental interest in these numbers today.
The markets are expecting a fall to 0.3% down from 0.7% from the previous quarter which is a fairly substantial drop. In my view this seems like a very steep fall as many of the indicators post Brexit have been stable and some even positive. We also know that manufacturing exports have performed incredibly well as a result of the weak pound whilst retail sales have also performed well on the whole.
The services sector is expected to have held up well but it is construction which may see a wobble. Construction however comprises a much smaller part towards GDP. As such I feel the forecast for this morning is too gloomy and a stable or better figure could see a short term rally in the pound. This kind of opportunity is unlikely to last for more than a few days so if you have a pending currency requirement then please get in touch and we can try and help you maximise on these kind of opportunities when they happen. A stronger number this morning would in my view be very good news for the pound.
The figures are likely to be seen as a victory for the ‘Remainers’ or the ‘Brexiteers’ depending on how well the economy has performed and politics are going to revolve around this release today. The data is released at 09:30 and high volatility is expected.
Clients who are buying Euros and dollars continue to feel the pinch and the outlook is not set to get better in the short term. If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on email@example.com