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Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 2:25
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The EUR lost some ground against Sterling last week, following the High Court’s ruling that Britain decision to leave the EU needed to be ratified by MP’s, before Article 50 could be formally triggered.

This immediately sent shock waves through the market and despite my feeling that the original decision will stand, the fact it needs to go to a vote has thrown some doubt into the minds of investors. It also means that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will likely have to provide more transparency on how she wants to facilitate the move and a softer Breixt is now on the cards in my opinion.

This may be good news for those clients holding Sterling in the future but for now the EUR remains the currency of choice for investors, despite last week’s drop. GBP/EUR rates are now trading around 1.12, which still represents fantastic selling opportunities and some of the best of the past five years. I still don’t feel a sustainable increase for Sterling is likely under current market conditions but it may be that the EUR will also struggle to bounce back to its recent highs, due to the aforementioned market developments.

I would be looking to take advantage of the current rates rather than gamble on an increasingly unpredictable market and with the US election results likely to cause additional market volatility over the coming days, the current rates could suddenly seem extremely attractive in weeks to come.

Looking at the key economic data this week and this morning we have UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production data, which is expected to show an improvement on previous. This is followed by Inflation data and the NIESR Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, which is followed closely by investors and could give us a key insight into the relative health of the UK economy.

Further ahead and Wednesday the European Commission will release their economic growth forecasts, so expect increased volatility on GBP/EUR exchange rates over the next couple of days.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on


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