Will the pound rise or fall in December?

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on [email protected]. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email [email protected] to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email [email protected] or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more.