The pound has fallen sharply against the Euro today despite little UK or EU economic data. The pound has had a good rally over the last ten days with rates for GBP EUR having broken 1.18. Levels as of this afternoon are sitting just below 1.17 which highlights resistance at these higher levels.
Tomorrow sees UK retail sales data for January where an improvement is expected over the December figures. Any strong number could see a short term rally for the pound against the Euro tomorrow morning.
For me it will be the political developments in these coming days which will be the main drivers for sterling Euro.
GBP EUR is likely to be particularly volatile as the French scandal surrounding Mr Fillon continues to unfold. The probe into the fake-work scandal with his family members continues to be investigated by the French financial prosecutor. Any sign of prosecution could really alter the strength of the Euro. Meanwhile Marine Le Pen is gaining in the polls which could signal many problems for the EU and Euro.
Greece is also bubbling away in the background with concerns over its ability to pay its next debt repayment due in July. This is definitely one issue to be aware of although I think with the European elections looking decisively worrying for the Eurozone then Greece may be treated slightly lighter with all the politics going on.
For those clients selling Euros there are some good opportunities to sell at present and with a busy week in UK politics next week with the Brexit bill going through the House of Lords then things may just become more volatile again. It is potentially only a few weeks to go before Article 50 is invoked and this is likely to create major volatility from here on. No country has ever left the EU before so it would be unwise to think this will be an easy path.
If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on firstname.lastname@example.org