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GBP EUR Volatility! – Brexit & European Elections Update (James Lovick)

Wednesday, February 15, 2017 11:02
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The pound has seen an excellent rally over the last ten days particularly against the Euro although we are now hitting resistance at these higher levels with GBP EUR now sitting at 1.18.

Those clients that had been waiting for 9th March as the date that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will invoke Article 50 and give notice to the EU that Britain is leaving should be aware of yesterday’s developments. Brexit Secretary David Davis made clear yesterday that 9th March was not a date that he recognised. In fact he said that it would happen “by the end of March, sometime in March.”
As such there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to when the negotiations will actually start. Furthermore the EU will reportedly meet to discuss the final position in April with negotiations to finally commence in May. As such there is still some time to go before the political storm.

French & Dutch Elections Could Spell Disaster for the Euro

The Euro in my view should come under great pressure in these coming weeks which could present some excellent buying opportunities for those clients needing to buy Euros. The Dutch election could throw up some surprises if Geert Wilders right wing and anti EU party performs better and forms a government. My view is that he could perform better than many expect.

Meanwhile the scandal surrounding conservative Presidential candidate Francois Fillon has really changed the French dynamics in this election. The scandal is so severe that the French Ex-Prime Minister and his wife Penelope may be indicted for Fraud later this week and may even serve time. Having been discredited and almost out of the race entirely it really does give Front national leader Marine Le Pen a big boost.

This French election is so crucial for anyone with a pending Euro requirement either buying Euros or selling Euros as Marine Le Pen has stated she will return to the French Franc within six months of taking office and has also called for a referendum for France to leave the EU, a potential Frexit.

There is so much happening in the currency markets but for me these particular stories are the ones to watch and will heavily impact on those clients needing to convert Euros back into sterling. A rise of the right in France and the Netherlands could see the Euro weaken dramatically. As if this wasn’t enough there is of course the issue of Greece which has returned yet again with another looming debt repayment to be paid in July which Greece is unable to make at this time for lack of funds. Expect volatility as the IMF and Greece and its European creditors try and negotiate the best solution.

If you would like further information on sterling exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on


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