Pound to Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar exchange rates have been ‘on the up’ in recent weeks, with the fortunes of prospective foreign currency buyers tied to the twists and turns taking place in UK Parliament.
This week the focus is shifting towards the state of inflation in the UK economy to be detailed to currency markets on Tuesday morning. This should provide some improvement on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD, welcome news since rates had actually begun to tick back away from recent highs on Thursday and Friday last week.
Why has the momentum on Pound to Euro and Dollar rates stalled?
Since December markets have been waiting to be told exactly what decision making processes will be in place for the Brexit negotiations. The final ruling from the Surpreme Court in January and the ‘Brexit Bill’ passing through Parliament this month gave us our answer.
Parliament will be, and have already been consulted on the Brexit, and will be given a ‘yes or no’ vote on any deal reached.
Like any project, you have greater confidence in it when there is some form of oversight. Whether you’re building a house or undertaking the greatest political challenge this country has seen in decades.
This perspective from the currency markets as a whole is why Pound to Euro and Dollar rates fell to record lows in October last year.
Theresa May was releasing little news on how preparations were going, and was acting solely by herself and her cabinet. This sharp turnaround is reflected in how exchange rates are now 10 cents higher on GBP/EUR and 6 cents higher on buying US Dollar exchange rates today compared to four months ago.
However, now that this is established, there is little more news to be released on this front. We now have the slow March towards Article 50.
Markets have made no secret at their anxiety towards the Brexit, and the closer we get its reasonable to assume higher risk will be involved for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase.
Inflammatory comments from European leaders have upset the Pound’s value before, and I fully expect to see this on multiple occasions before March 31st.
However, economic data may bring a further welcome boost, which will be coming out Tuesday morning. If it comes in as expected, this inflation data may show the same stability we’ve seen over the past few months.
Euro and Dollar buyers should consider this as an opportunity to sensibly purchase their currency or at least fix a rate for a planned transfer. Moving forward in the short t medium term, there seems to be higher risk with little upside.
Conversely, anyone with a Euro or Dollar to Sterling interest is in less of a rush from my perspective and should see more attractive levels in the coming weeks.
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