Will the pound or Euro go up or down in the coming weeks or months is a very valid question as there are so many upcoming events to move the rates. I would predict a range of 1.13-1.20 in the coming weeks as we get answers to some very important questions over Brexit and European affairs. If there is one thing the currency markets are not fond of it is political uncertainty. Markets can just about digest economic uncertainty as investors are used to assessing economic data on a daily basis. However political events, particularly the unique nature of current affairs make for some much more interesting outcomes for the pound to euro exchange rate.
The pound to euro rate could fall and easily retest the lower levels of 1.1298 seen in 2017 as well as the 1.1068 seen back in October. These big falls in sterling were all due to worry over the Brexit and as such these levels could easily be revisited. The actual triggering of Article 50 could be anytime in the next month, if you have a transfer to consider with pounds or euros making a decision or some plans before this happens seems very sensible to me. For my clients I am currently drawing up strategies to help cope with such volatility for the pound, if you would like information on a strategy to suit you please email me Jonathan Watson at firstname.lastname@example.org.
What kind of deal will the UK actually get with the EU? Will this have a large detrimental effect on the UK economy? Will Theresa May’s determination to put immigration and sovereignty above economic certainty harm the UK? These are just some of the questions looming which could well lead to the pound coming under some serious selling pressures again in the not so distant future.
Euro buyers with pounds need not jump out of the window quite yet. Whilst sterling may well fall the recent trend has been more positive for sterling as investors finally get some clarity over the Brexit. Of course this is just one step on a long journey but it might be that markets do not view Brexit so badly now? Only time will tell, personally this is not a risk I would be wholly advocating. Considering GBPEUR is currently at some of the best deals in 2017 some 4% higher than the lows, now is clearly not a bad time to be considering your Euro purchase.
Further good news for Euro buyers is the political uncertainty emanating from events in the Eurozone. 20th February sees the Eurogroup meeting to discuss the problems of Greek debt. Then 15th March sees Dutch Elections which could well weigh on the Euro. Moving into April on the 23rd we have the French elections. With plenty of fresh headlines around such events likely to weigh on the Euro we could see some better opportunities for Euro buyers. I would not rule out rates over 1.20, we are not far from that now. If you wish to buy Euros at 1.20 please email me on email@example.com and I can monitor developments for you.
It might be that the pound to Euro rate rises on Greek fears in the next week before dipping once Article 50 is triggered and then rising again around the Dutch election. I would honestly be predicting swings of up to 2-3 cents on certain days as markets get wrong-footed and we see surprises trigger volatility on the markets.
Whilst it is impossible to accurately predict the outcome of the events above it is possible to make plans and preparations. As part of my personal strategies for personal clients and businesses who need to conduct pound to euro exchanges I can explain all of the options available and offer my personal proactive service to monitor the market.
For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch with Jonathan Watson by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org. I have appeared on BBC News discussing the Brexit and have been quoted in numerous online articles and newspapers. I cannot tell you exactly what to do but I am very confident I can offer some useful insight and information to help you get the most from the market.