Expect High Volatility when Article 50 is invoked
Following the House of Commons voting against making amendments to the exit plan it was handed to the Queen for Royal approval. This was a formality, a mark of respect to bygone times, pre-Cromwell. Now the bill has been approved by all parties concerned Theresa May is in a position to trigger article 50 and begin Britain’s exit from the European Union.
May has said the invocation of Article 50 will take place in the week commencing 27th March. May plans to visit Scotland,Northern Ireland and Wales in the period before. I think there are several reasons for the delay, the Dutch election, the Rome treaty and most predominantly Sturgeon calling for a Scottish referendum.
When article 50 is triggered expect volatility on GBP/EUR. Personally I am of the opinion Brexit has already been factored into the exchange rate.
Before the announcement there was to be a referendum, GBP/EUR sat at 1.42, September 2015. I feel Sterling is undervalued as do Morgan Stanley analysts, stating “The pound is the most undervalued currency in the world and will return to pre-Brexit levels.”
But that will occur when the button is actually pushed?
The popular opinion is that Sterling will fall. I know the market moves on rumour as well as fact. I think Brexit has already been factored into the exchange and their is the possibility that Sterling could rally as some certainty is restored to the future of the UK economy. There are however seven figure investors waiting to move once the button is pushed. This will cause lots of movement on GBP/EUR. It may be wise to trade some of your requirement before the event and some after, hedging your bets.
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