French Election to continue to be the main driver between GBP/EUR, where will the pair go next? (Joseph Wright)

The French election is looking very difficult to predict, and with the 4 main candidates all battling for top spot but with no clear front-runner at the time of writing. This is creating relatively large swings between Euro exchange rates due to the varied political outlooks from the many candidates in the running.

The Pound to Euro rate recently hit its highest level so far in 2017, as the UK PM, Theresa May called a general election as soon as June the 8th. This is to try and stop the divisions within Westminster and allow the government to move forward with its Brexit plans and therefore create some more certainty as to the direction the Country will take regarding Brexit.

These gains have come under some pressure today as Emmanual Macron is currently leading the current polls, and this is considered a positive for the French economy moving forward due to Macrons pro-EU stance.

On the other hand, far-right Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen is also in the running and should she start leading the polls there’s a chance the Euro can weaken which is what we saw earlier this year in February when the Euro previously hit its lowest level against the Pound so far this year.

The first round of voting takes place this weekend on the 23rd , and I think a strong performance from Le Pen could result in further Euro weakness and push the GBP/EUR above the psychological level of 1.20.

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