Sterling outlook for the week ahead – What may impact Sterling exchange rates this week?

Last week was indeed one of the most crucial for the Pound this year, with the announcement that the Brexit transitional phase has been all but agreed on Monday. The final vote on this took place at the EU summit on Friday. This acted as the catalyst for the Pound’s gains, which was also supported by the fact that at the latest BOE monetary policy meeting, 2 members voted in favour of an interest rate hike even though rates were left on hold at 0.5%. The USD was impacted by further tariffs levvied on China to the affect of $60bn, and controversy surrounding the allegations made against Russia of a cyber attack on US power grid.

This week starts off relatively quietly, then on Wednesday we have US Gross Domestic Product and Core Personal Consumption figures, followed by Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices from Germany on Thursday.

As all readers are more than likely aware, this market is a strange one and still extremely politically driven, so do be wary of any movements regarding Brexit talks that may also impact the Pound at any time.

Below we have detailed some of the key data releases and events so you can keep an eye out for them.

Monday (today)

• 09:45 – New Zealand | Imports (Feb) (NZD)
• 21:45 – New Zealand | Exports (Feb) (NZD)
• 21:45 – New Zealand | Trade Balance (Feb) (NZD)

Tuesday

• n/a – Australia | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) (AUD)
• 00:45 – Australia | RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech (AUD)
• 09:00 – Euro | Business Climate (Mar) (EUR)
• 13:00 – US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Jan)
• 15:00 – US | FOMC Member Bostic speech (USD)

Wednesday

• 07:00 – Germany | Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Apr) (EUR)
• 08:00 – Switzerland | ZEW Survey – Expectations (Mar) (CHF)
• 12:30 – US | Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q4) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) (USD)
• 13:30 – US | Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (Q4) (USD)
• 13:30 – US | Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Q4) (USD)
• 14:00 – US | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) (USD)
• 16:00 – US | FOMC Member Bostic speech (USD)
• 21:45 – New Zealand | Building Permits s.a. (MoM) (Feb) (NZD)

Thursday

• 07:00 – Switzerland | KOF Leading Indicator (Mar) (CHF)
• 08:00 – Germany | Unemployment Change (Mar) (EUR)
• 08:00 – Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar) (EUR)
• 08:30 – UK | Gross Domestic Product (Q4) (GBP)
• 08:30 – UK | Mortgage Approvals (Feb) (GBP)
• 12:00 – Germany | Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Mar) (EUR)
• 12:30 – US | Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Feb) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (Feb) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Feb) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Personal Spending (Feb) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar 16) (USD)
• 12:30 – US | Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 23) (USD)
• 12:30 – Canada | Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jan)
• 13:45 – US | Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Mar) (USD)
• 17:00 – US | FOMC Member Harker Speech (USD)

Friday

• 00:01 – UK | Gfk Consumer Confidence (Mar) (GBP)
• 07:45 – France | Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) (Mar) (EUR)
• 17:00 – US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count (USD)

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like my assistance, both with timing a transfer and achieving the best rate when you do go about booking it then feel free to contact me, Daniel Wright directly on [email protected] and I will be happy to help you personally.