B E N E N S O N S T R A T E G Y G R O U P 1000 Potomac Street, N.W., Suite 420 Washington, D.C. 20007 TEL 202.339.6060
Interviews with 2,021 adult Americans conducted by telephone by BSG on October 10-13, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The sample uses a LVS based on voting history (65%), self-attestation (12%), social-media data mining (10%), demographic / socio-economic class (18%). This sample includes 1101 interviews among landline respondents and 920 interviews among cell phone respondents. NO SKEWS OR NARRATIVE SCREENS WERE EMPLOYED Executive Overview: Hillary Clinton Flash-Crash to 12% Favorable, Losing 19-77% Nationally At this point Donald Trump has both momentum and enthusiasm. Distrust in the mainstream media is blunting the impact of the collective polling narrative. As Election Day approaches, Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings have crashed to historic lows (12%) in nonpartisans and Donald Trump is consolidating support (97% of LV Republican-identifying respondents are either enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting for Trump). Among independents, Hillary voters who are exposed to any alternative media (73%) are aware of the WikiLeaks emails and find them either disturbing (54%) or deeply disturbing (18%). Among liberal-identifying whites, support is shifting from Hillary (-27 since October 1 st) to Donald Trump (78%) or Jill Stein (21%). For voters who solely consume mainstream media only 28% are aware of the WikiLeaks emails and of those, only 8% are aware of the content. For these voters Clinton leads Trump by +8. Minority voters are less likely to consume alternative media (only 14%) and are less likely to be aware of the email leak (only 18% for males, 9% for females). Even with this group, enthusiasm is down 63 points compared to October 2008. On other fronts, the counter-narrative is failing as well. Most heavy consumers of social media understand that the allegations against Donald Trump of sexual misconduct have largely been debunked (77%). We understand that communications strategies in that space have been unable to reduce the impact of this messaging. Worse, among white males in telephone polling 93% of them either approve (72%) or strongly approve (21%) of Donald Trump’s hot-mic tape. Only 39% of women approve of them however a majority (64%) say they ‘understand that confident men talk that way.’ In effect, these allegations have been diffused. On a positive note, most respondents who were liberal-leaning (83%) or Independent (59%) were unaware of the messaging front concerning Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct. While the vast majority (88%) were aware of consensual extra-marital relationships, the mainstream media approach to the stories has left only 8% of liberal-leaning voters and only 19% of independents aware of the allegations of rape. On a disturbing note, some 70% of Republican-leaning voters are aware bussed-in voting, false-face operations, and dead-man’s-party registration drives. This may necessitate severe strategy changes for November.