zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 27, 2016 10:51 AM
While ‘some’ measures of the US labor market look rosy, one indicator is flashing signs of frgaility… and, asBloomberg notes, it’s an important one too.
The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index. After falling just three times from 2012 to 2015, the index has fallen every month of 2016 except for one, July. And in July the annual change in the LMCI, from July 2015, turned negative.
That’s only the eighth time in nearly 40 years the index was down on a year-over-year basis, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna wrote in a note to clients today. Of the seven previous occasions, LaVorgna wrote, “four were soon followed by recession.”
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