marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / OCTOBER 26, 2016
Between tomorrow and the end of next week, six central banks meet. Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank hold policy meetings tomorrow. Next week is the BOJ, RBA, BOE, and the FOMC.
Of these central banks, the Riksbank is the most likely to adjust policy, and even that is not an odds on favorite scenario. A Bloomberg survey found 26 of 27 do not expect the Riksbank to cut rates but three in ten expect more bond purchases.
The case for easing rests on the underperformance of inflation, despite the negative rates and asset purchases. Headline CPI in September slipped to 0.9% from 1.1% in August, which is a four-year high. The underlying rate, which is not a core rate, but simply uses fixed rate mortgages, slipped to 1.2% from 1.4% and is the lowest in four months.
Although Sweden’s growth appears robust, it will not be sustained. Today the debt office tweaked this year’s growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.2%. However, next year’s growth forecast was cut to 1.9% from 2.2%.