Visitors Now:
Total Visits:
Total Stories:
Profile image
By silveristhenew (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

The Week Ahead: It’s Not about the Data

Sunday, October 9, 2016 9:14
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

(Before It's News)

B4INREMOTE-aHR0cHM6Ly8zLmJwLmJsb2dzcG90LmNvbS8tVjhUU1R4dlVadWcvVl9qN0hKRzJKTUkvQUFBQUFBQUFWM0EvRHZJNzhJSGVCV2NnNkVKRm9lMnRENEJJUm1XZFF5b29BQ0xjQi9zNDAwL2Nyb2MuanBn / by Marc Chandler / October 9, 2016

High frequency economic reports will be not be among the key drivers of the capital markets in the week ahead. The light schedule, consisting mostly of industrial production in Europe, inflation for Scandinavia, and US retail sales, will have minimal impact on rate expectations.
A November rate Fed move was never very likely.  The September employment report needed to be amazingly strong to boost the chances, and it was not.  To overcome tradition, and the logistical difficulty of arranging a unscheduled press conference, without word leaking out, a greater sense of urgency would need to be present.  Recent comments by the Fed’s leadership, especially most recently Fischer and Dudley expressed no such thing.
Our own calculation based on the November Fed funds futures contract that the market is discounting about a 7% chance of a hike on November 2.  The CME puts the odds a little above 10%, while Bloomberg has it at 17%.   The most important real sector data in the week ahead is the retail sales report.  Like the employment data, a solid even if not spectacular retail sales report is expected.  American households are not shopping like they did in Q2 when consumption rose 4.3% at an annualized pace, but a 2.8%-3.0% rate should be sufficient to lift growth above what the Fed now estimates as trend (1.8%).


The post The Week Ahead: It’s Not about the Data appeared first on Silver For The People.

Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.