Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses how best to play the correction currently underway in the precious metals markets.
You would think that the flock of sheep listening to the wolves would eventually wake up and realize that they are going to get shorn again and then eaten. It happens the same way every time and the sheep fall for it once more.
Gold and silver topped in early July after a six-month rally. The XAU and HUI topped in mid-August after a 198% and 186% climb respectively since January. You would think that the sheep would wake up and smell the roses. It was a wonderful opportunity to take some money off the table.
I wrote a long piece in early August, just before the shares peaked talking about how money always moves from weak hands into strong hands. I was trying to warn people. And I followed that up with another piece in early September saying the correction would last a little longer and we would have a monumental buying opportunity.
I was not alone. Bob Hoye of Institutional Investors was warning readers that a correction was underway in August. Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report was saying for months that we had a low for gold and silver coming up in October. Both Bob Hoye and Tom McClellan was saying last December that the low was in for gold and silver. They nailed both the bottom and a perfectly normal correction as I did.
But the gold and silver markets are filled with wolves that want nothing more than to get your money in exchange for feeding your fantasies. At every market low they are whining about how the bullion banks are manipulating the gold price and keeping it suppressed. At every high they are suggesting a Comex default is about to happen and prices are going to skyrocket. Or the market is about to have a “commercial signal failure.” Of course they just made it up. Comex can’t default; there are provisions in every commodity market for cash settlement. If there weren’t anyone with pockets deep enough could force every commodity market into failure. We hear about how the shorts are into “naked short selling” one more time even though there is no such thing.
They have been getting it 100% dead wrong since the bull market started back in 2001 but the mob of sheep don’t care because they get all their fantasies fed. Of course the charlatans and scam artists have cost their readers millions of dollars but con men are like politicians, they specialize in telling people what they want to hear.
I find it very funny that these frauds use concepts that anyone with a computer and Google can show is nonsense. Some of these fools want to convince their readers that the Central Banks are behind a “gold takedown” but if you go to Google and put in “central banks buying gold” you can find dozens of articles showing that contrary to the con men, actually the Central Banks are buying gold. Yet another writer on one of those single string banjo playing websites said he doubted the Central Banks had half the gold they claim but through Google we now know that not only have the Central Banks been buying gold, they have been buying gold stocks with both hands.
One word the experts, the gurus and all the other fools never use is correction. All markets go up and down. It’s the way of the world. A market enters a bull phase but it will correct. A market enters a bear phase but it corrects. If you are reading anyone taking about naked short sales or Comex defaults or gold takedowns, if you never hear the word “correction” either the writer is a fool or you are. And in the greatest bull market in history, you are going to lose all your money because at the very top they are going to be telling you to buy.
Some writers get it and get it right most of the time. John Rubino just wrote a brilliant piece talking about what the COTs mean and the buying opportunity right around the corner. He gets it and you should pay attention to him. Another excellent article talking about corrections came out about the same time, this piece from Gary Savage. He gets it.
If you want your fantasies fed, it’s going to cost you a lot of money. If on the other hand you want to make money, start paying attention to the guys who don’t feed your fantasies.
I happen to believe we are in for one more perfectly natural event called “running the stops.” Experienced market traders know that the neophytes like to place stop loss orders just under previous lows. If you look back on a chart of the HUI and XAU to late May, you will realize that was the last major low before shares zoomed higher. There will be a ton of stops in gold, silver and shares just below those lows. I suspect we will see one more move down to below those May lows before everything goes up. It’s manipulation, it’s perfectly legal and it happens every bottom.
Sunday next is a full moon and markets like to change direction at full moons. I said in August and September that we were in a correction. I think that the buying opportunity of a lifetime is at hand. Most individual shares have had a big correction but I think the market will clearly turn shortly. When the market plunges for a day and then turns that is the safest time to ever invest.
Bob and Barb Moriarty brought 321gold.com to the Internet almost 14 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 820 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.
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1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Bob Moriarty and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Bob Moriarty is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation or editing so the author could speak independently about the sector. Bob Moriarty was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.