Following last month’s disappointing drop in ADP jobs (then confirmed by payrolls), October’s ADP employment report printed 147k (less than the expected 165k) – the weakest since April 2013. A major upward revision (from 154k to 202k) for September. Construction (as spending collapses) and education jobs declined notably as the overall trend of job gains continues to weaken.
According to ADP’s Mark Zandi, “job growth appears to be shifting from small to large companies due to the lessening impact the global economic environment had on large companies earlier in the year,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “This is also true because large companies often have the resources to attract workers with better pay and benefit packages.” Zandi added that “job growth remains strong although the pace of growth appears to be slowing. Behind the slowdown is businesses’ difficulty filling open positions. owever, there is some weakness in construction, education and mining.”
Looking at the details shows continued job losses in manufacturing, construction and natural resources jobs, which declined by a total of 18,000 offset by strength in professional and business services and leisure and hospitality:
The trend continues to weaken:
Here is the Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
The comparison to NFP: Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
As a reminder, The Fed’s own labor market indicator is now in contraction YoY:
Full ADP Breakdown: